Sunday , October 2 2022

Bounce with a bargain from


© Reuters. It was possible to recover properly except for the MosBirzh rubel index – As hopefully, the Russian market, on Tuesday, began to recover after a sharp correction before the weekend in the Kerchsundet. And it was also possible to recover, with the exception of the ruble, which had been 2290 p. In the evening, he finished Tuesday just below the level of 2340 p. Only three points did not reach what was closed on Friday. The index must be worse: closed on Friday over 1110 s. And flew on monday during 1080 s. Then he spent the whole Tuesday in the 1095-1100 s corridor.

It's not hard to guess that the MosBirzy index in this situation is almost completely indebted for its growth in the ruble. Closing the day before at around 67.1, he steadily strengthened in the morning exactly to 66.5 rubles. – and then even more smoothly at 19.00 Moscow time, it returned to its previous positions.

"On Friday, the market reacted strongly to the decline in oil prices, but then they stabilized, and against this background, Russian stocks still look cheap. As soon as world markets end, the Russian market is trying to grow. On Monday it was mostly an emotional reaction, There were no hard statements from the West, and the market does not see any significant risks in it, "said Edward Kharin, Portfolio Manager at Alpha Capital.

It was not worth hoping for a full rebound: in general, it's too little positive on the world market. "Today everything fell, it was not a pure Russian story, all assets in developing countries felt bad," says Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. "And it's quite good that as long as world history affects us, if we see other markets moving and nothing happens in our country, it will mean complete isolation."

There is a chance that the world market will revive – and this will support Russian stocks. "We can expect the monetary policy of the Fed – more and more members of the Committee of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) They are inclined to believe that hard rhetoric becomes unnecessary, "said Edward Kharin. At the same time, it is not alone to start the "New Year Rally". "We need another good news – for example, to solve the problem of a trade war with China, but this is unlikely. But even if the parties disagree, it is enough for the United States to postpone the introduction of new tasks – A positive and a neutral event overall can form a positive background, "he believes.

As regards the future prospects of the rubles, the views differ from one another. "The tunnel has recently fallen in price by $ 20 and the dollar has risen in price with just a few rubles. Everyone understands that in January, the Ministry of Finance will once again enter the market with currency purchases, so it's hardly worth talking about linking the ruble to oil "says Oleg Kuzmin. His colleague, on the other hand, believes that improving the oil market situation can help the ruble." Although there is hope for the OPEC + agreement to reduce oil production. The oil conflict curve has been inverted for a long time, now it has got a normal shape and this hopes that oil can still grow: Previous market participants clearly showed that the price would fall – each next contract was cheaper, now every next contract is more expensive "- Oleg Kharin notes.

However, the current oil price dynamics does not give rise to trust. After receiving the last comment, Brent's barrel, which rose in price from Monday to Monday from 58.5 to 61 dollars, suddenly sharply again to $ 59.6.

(The text was drafted by Daniel Zhelobanov)

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