Tuesday , September 28 2021

Economist commented the remarkable figures: At what cost?

Economist Mahfi Eğilmez evaluated the tasks of foreign trade.

The famous economist Mahfi Eğilmez evaluated foreign trade announced by TURKSTAT. Bending, the analysis of the truth behind data revealed the numbers.

Mahfi Eğilmez Article in BBC Turkish:

"The Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) according to the latest data increases Turkey's exports to the corresponding imports, thus reducing trade deficits. The reduction in trade deficit means reducing the deficit.

First of all, we should use TurkStats data.

According to the table, exports generally increased compared with the previous year. On the other hand, imports generally seem to decrease, and the deficit in foreign trade is decreasing as a result of this development.

Over the last month, this situation has become clear in the last month: exports increased by 22.4 percent in September while imports fell by 18.3 percent and the deficit in foreign trade decreased by 77.1 percent.

Prospects are also reflected in the export quota. In September, the ratio of exports to imports rose to 88.5 percent, which made it a record breaking record.

If we look at the growth of growth from the downturn at first glance at a glimpse of the development of such appealing to understand if it's a bit more detailed, we need to do a deeper analysis.

First, let us define some concepts that we will use in this analysis:

Foreign trade deficit: It is the difference between exports and imports. If a country imports more value than the value of the goods it exports, the balance of payments in that country means a deficit in foreign trade. Turkey has an economy that is traditionally open trade. Foreign trade deficits increase during periods of high economic growth and economic growth, and vice versa. Since a significant proportion of inputs used in production in Turkey (about 65 percent) consist of imported goods. The higher the economic growth, the higher the production, the higher its production, the higher the deficit in foreign trade. Exchange rates are one of the important factors affecting foreign trade. As TL deteriorates against foreign currencies and especially against the dollar and the euro, which is export and import currency, exports are increasing and imports are decreasing.

Trade Terms: That is the amount of purchased quantity and the price. By comparing the prices of the goods purchased and sold for a certain period, the loss or profit during that period can be measured.
Value Index: It is an index used to measure the change in the total export and import values. The base year dollar values ​​are used in calculating the value index. The baseline index used by TurkStat is taken as 2010 = 100. The fact that the index exceeds 100 means that the value of exports or imports is higher than the base year and that it is lower.

Amount of Index: It is the index that shows changes in export and import volumes. In this, the base year is taken as 2010 = 100 and the index is over 100 means that exports or imports are higher than the year of the year and the lower is smaller.

Trade Terms: The export unit's value index is obtained by proportional to the import unit value index. Foreign trade is over 100; foreign trade goods in comparison with the base year to sell cheap, cheap for the country in favor of a situation, under 100 is a situation against the country.
Let's now look at the summary of the Foreign Trade Index for September 2018, which Turkstat issued on November 9, 2018.

The table shows that the export unit's value index fell by 2.3 percent compared with September 2017, while the import unit's value index increased by 2.6 percent over the same period. In this case, each exported device exports less money and each device imported is paid more.

In other words, unit prices for goods exported from Turkey have increased the unit price for goods, it is the import fall.

How has imports reduced imports? The answer to this question is also hidden in the quantity indices. Although the table's export index increased by 25.2 percent, the index index fell by 20.3 percent.

So Turkey sells more goods cost less.

The volume of foreign trade, which was calculated by dividing the export unit's value index with the import unit index, which was 106.6 in September 2017, decreased by 4.7 percent to 101.6 in September 2018.

When considering the value and quantity indices together, it is understood that we increased exports by selling more goods at cheaper prices. Import is the opposite. We have taken a lot less money. "

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