Fear of crisis is growing in the United States. Memories from the recent recession are still fresh and fuel this worry.
The last time America experienced a recession was 2008. Millions of people lost their jobs, GDP growth slowed and companies went bankrupt.
But not all crises are so. Sometimes the economy can even grow more through a crisis. In fact Some economists believe that the world is already in recession and most people do not even realize it.
– According to our indicators, we are already in a growth recession said Alesio de Longis, senior manager at Invesco. – As we enter 2020, growth is lacking in a synchronized way –
The growth economy is when the economy grows below the trend and slows down. The upward trend is an average growth rate that keeps unemployment and inflation at a stable level. The world economy has grown by a trend of about 3%, said Longis. In 2018, global GDP has grown at a rate of 3.04%, according to the World Bank. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the world economy would grow by three percent this year. But this is just a forecast: The economy may be in worse shape right now.
De Longis is not alone in his assessment. Charles Schvab, investment strategist for Liz Ann Sonders, said the world was already in a recession.
The recent downturn in the US manufacturing sector during the trade war has ruined the outlook for the global economy. It suggests that Economic contagion is spreading from the United States to the world.
Strong spending has helped keep the US economy up to date, but growth has also slowed in the US. Over the summer, concerns about trade conflicts began to erode consumer confidence, which could eventually affect overall growth.
For the United States, the global economic boom is likely to lead to slow growth, with millions of jobs lost since it was the most recent recession 10 years ago. The recession would not be something like 2008, when America entered the so-called technical recession. The US economy is far from over.
According to economists' expectations, GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to reach 1, 8 percent or even 2 percent.
In Europe everything looks much darker, a the chances of a recession are much higher. European export-dependent economies are at the heart of trade and curb concerns. The fourth largest economy in the European Union, Italy, was in a technical recession during the second half of 2018, with its largest economy, Germany, which recorded a steady slowdown in economic growth this year, remember economists there.