the exchange rate It would close 2019 at S / 3.30, over the original projection of the bank Scotiabank (S / 3.22), but with a downward bias in relation to the current price.
"We basically maintain a similar estimate applied to a higher base. There are risks both in the market's technical figure and basically," says senior analyst at the Department of Economic Studies at Scotia Bank, Mario Guerrero.
He explained that Peru's economic foundation for 2019 (economic growth of 4%, inflation of 2.5%, deficit of 2% of GDP, current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP, level of stable international reserves) should contribute to correct the overreaction of exchange rate set in 2018
He said that the international scenario for 2019 is more difficult to visualize. It must take into account the effects of commercial war on the economic slowdown and prices of metals; Degree of risk aversion, mainly in China and emerging economies. and as a general context, the monetary normalization of Fed (which has already been largely expected of the markets).
"Our base-related scenario considers global economic growth of 3.7% according to our global team and includes a moderate impact of the trade war, with the US falling by 2.4%," he said in the bank's weekly report. .
In this context, the Federal Reserve would continue its monetary normalization process, but in view of global slowdown, probably lower interest rates than expected from the market (two increase instead of three).
The latest worries of Fed officials on global growth for 2019 make this scenario likely.
This would cause the dollar to deteriorate (falling below 95 points in the DXY index), given that the positions in the futures market record marginal increases, typical behavior before the change of trend.
"Lower interest rates and weak dollars would support our forecast of the price of gold at US $ 1,300 per ounce. China It would grow by 6.2% on the basis of expansive monetary and tax measures that could counteract the negative impact of the tariff increase and would support our average price of about USD 3 per pound, "he said.
A key factor in the development of metal prices is the recovery of futures markets, which are now sold.
Local political noise can continue to generate "hiccups", but without changing the background direction. This scenario is compatible with an exchange rate of S / 3.30 at the end of 2019.
"This is our preferred scenario, but other scenarios are almost as likely, given the high volatility currently characterizing the financial markets. The risk balance necessarily means the consequences of the US-China trade war," he said.
Guerrero said that these could not only give a global deceleration greater than expected, but also to raise risk aversion among investors and thereby the collapse of capital flows into new economies.
A catalyst for this scenario would be a depreciation of the yuan, whose impact would be significant among emerging markets, which led to the exchange rate above S / 3.40.
This scenario would be consistent with a local political noise of high intensity, such as congress closure or progression of elections. In this case, it is necessary to make decisions with caution and with equivalent currency hedges.
In this context, the Central Bank's participation (BCR) will be crucial. The issuing unit has followed the upward trend of the exchange rate, which facilitates the currency hedging process by placing CDR and currency swaps.
One reason that there are no direct actions (spot sales) is that the volatility of volumes was even lower in September this year than the one registered in 2017. Another is that depreciation has widened among the new economies. A further background is that the real exchange rate does not show a significant misalignment.
On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the holding of government bonds by foreign investors, despite the increase in risk aversion, is over 40%.
Far from declining their positions, these investors chose to cover their position. This higher demand for hedges has increased its price, but to a moderate extent.
This confidence is also reflected in the fact that even though all growing currencies are depreciating, the Peruvian sun does it with a lower intensity, which remains the most stable currency in Latin America.