Saturday , December 5 2020

The oil market's "bear" bundle has been temporarily damaged



Fuel prices have also fallen in price.

Fuel prices have also fallen in price. Photo of "Lietuvos žinių" archive

The oil market began to recover on Wednesday when it fell half a and a half ago in Bear Bear. Apparently, we will soon find it at gas stations, where fuel prices have been slightly over the past week. Market analysts promise a new increase in crude oil prices.

On the global market, November 15, Brent's oil price has already risen to $ 66 per barrel after a slight increase in the price yesterday. On November 13, the price of this oil had fallen to $ 65.43 from $ 3 billion on October 3. Thus, for more than one and a half months, oil has fallen by 15 percent.

Estimates are not confirmed

The forecast that oil prices continue to fall due to supply surpluses are not confirmed. Recently, the reasons for a recovery in the market, or at least stabilization, have emerged. On Wednesday, November 14, the Reuters Agency reported that the cartel with oil-exporting countries and its allies (OPEC +) is considering the possibility of reducing production by 1.4 million in 2019. barrels per day. In October, according to the International Energy Agency (TENA), nearly 33 million people were taken out daily. barrel.

Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday that OPEC and cartel allies agreed that in order to balance the market it is necessary to reduce the supply of oil by about 1 million in the next few years. barrel per day compared to October. "We see the risk of equity development unless we do anything and we can not afford it. Of course, there will be a need to reduce demand in this case," Reuters quoted the minister.

The oil price should therefore rise again, but it is doubtful if any analyst forecasts in October show that they will reach $ 100 a barrel at the end of the year. Now it's about $ 80-82, and the means is $ 75 worth more.

OECD countries are expected to reduce production by 2019, which may not be enough for a more pronounced reduction in supply. This will be decided during the cartel meeting in December. Apparently, in the near future, it will be necessary to observe the specific oil war between OPEC and the United States. Cartel and its allies plan to reduce production, but the US Energy Information Board (EIA) predicts 7.9 million in December. Larger shale oil extraction per day. United States production has already surpassed Saudi Arabia's former leader. In addition, Washington has promised not to impose sanctions on Iran, and it will be able to trade its oil freely.

Market analysts point out that the oil market's fall in one and a half weeks reminds us of 2015, when oil is falling rapidly, with a sharp rise in shale oil production in the United States. Oil prices fell this year only in July.

Fuel is a bit cheaper

When oil prices fell, wholesale prices fell, and later prices for petroleum products. Orlen Lietuva AB has fallen from 1,125 to 1,09 euro per liter from 29 October to 14 November and petrol A95 – from 1,104 euros to 1,052 euros.

Such trends have gradually spread to trade in fuel trade. The innovation is that the prices of petrol and diesel at gas stations are the same. This is typical for the heating season. As demand for diesel increases at this point, as it is used in many parts of the world as a fuel for fireplaces.

In November, petrol stations fuel petrol at prices between 1.11 and 1.13 while diesel fuel costs 1.13-1.14 euros. This situation is currently repeating practice for Estonian fuel trade. For more than 10 years, petrol and diesel fuel prices in the country have been the same.


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