Friday , August 12 2022

If Iran’s Khamenei has to resign, who will replace him?


In the last six years since Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei underwent prostate surgery, there has been much speculation as to who could succeed the 81-year-old if he dies or becomes too ill to continue ruling. Then suddenly on Saturday, an Iranian dissident reporter said that Khamenei may have transferred power to his son, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei (51), amid concerns about his declining health. Could this be a change in Iran’s regime for the first time since 1989? And, if so, who would probably take over after Khamenei permanently? First, Ali Khamenei has survived many speculations that his poor health had ended him – since 2014. In the same way, there have been many periods of speculation in the past year. that North Korea’s much younger leader, Kim Jong-un, fell ill, including that he was already dead. But then he would return to the public within a few days or weeks. Chances are at least Khamenei is sick. But the lessons from his and Kim’s past are that he can not be counted on until a supreme leader is dead.

If Khamenei is finally on his way out, Mojtaba is truly a candidate. He has had significant power within his father’s circles and in trying to keep various major centers of power in the country divided. He can even get support from Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards, a state within a state in the Islamic Republic. Mojtaba is seen as a hardliner when it comes to vests. However, it is highly unlikely that he would benefit from the country’s assembly of experts, dominated by ayatollahs with religious expertise. Mojtaba does not have the same type of expertise.
In accordance with Iran’s constitution, the Ayatollahs choose the successor, and Khamenei is not a king who can simply pass the role on to his son. The head of Iran’s judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, would probably be Ayatollah’s favorite. Back in August 2019, there was a growing speculation that Raisi emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, wrote Iran expert Raz Zimmt. Like Mojtaba, Raisi is considered a hardliner and it would have major consequences for the United States and Israel if he succeeds Khamenei as opposed to some more reform-minded candidates. Zimmt said that the Conservative priest since Raisi’s appointment as head of the judiciary in March 2019 has expanded his efforts to promote changes in the judiciary, improve his public image and increase his media. This would always be important for someone like Raisi, who is on the shortlist for to succeed the eighth leader. But the new marketing efforts and the fact that Khamenei openly supports these efforts become even more significant when viewed in light of Raisi’s loss to President Hassan Rouhani in the May 2017 presidential election with a vote of 23 to 16 million. Khamenei’s statement seems clear: He does not care if Raisi lost to Rouhani: he wants Raisi as his successor or at least wants to continue to promote him as a leader. Zimmt noted that “it is still too early to assess Raisi’s chances of winning the legacy of Iran’s leadership, which will inevitably be affected by the timing of Khamenei’s departure from the political map.” of the judiciary; his tenure as chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi Foundation and Imam Reza Shrine in the city of Mashhad; ”
RAISI WAS born in December 1960 in the city of Mashhad. Since the early 1980s, he has held a number of positions in the judiciary, including prosecutor in Tehran, head of the General Inspection Office of the Judiciary, the first Deputy Supreme Court and lawyer. The Mashhad Foundation, as Zimmt wrote, is a powerful foundation that controls significant Islamic trusts, a wide range of assets and large budgets. Raisi serves as a member of the Expediciency Council and as Vice-Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, who is responsible for overseeing the activities of the Supreme Leader, appointing his successor and even possibly removing him from office if he is found unfit to continue Shortly after he became head of the judiciary announced Raisi changes, including achieving greater efficiency. Zimmt said Raisi placed the war on corruption high on his For example, he fired dozens of judges accused of involvement in corruption. In addition, Raisi announced that he was reducing the number of bank accounts he had and would issue annual reports. This seemed to be an attempt to differentiate himself from his predecessor, Sadeq Larijani, who is alleged to have more than 60 bank accounts with funds from citizens who had cases in court, Zimmt wrote. Raisi also worked to increase his media exposure and improve his public image, especially after his election loss to Rouhani. had emerged “as a dull candidate without charisma, who had difficulty compensating for his lack of political experience,” says Zimmt.
In JUNE 2019, Raisi posted an unusual post on his Instagram account urging Iranians to contact him via their personal social media accounts to suggest necessary improvements to the judiciary. Zimmt wrote that “this initiative was warmly received, especially by the pro-reform media, who expressed hope that this would lead to a reconsideration of current policies to block social networks and strengthen public confidence in the judiciary. The same month, Iranian media published pictures showing Raisi traveling to work on the Tehran metro, apparently to strengthen his image as a simple and modest lifestyle. He granted an extensive media interview during court week. Raisi has had problems with the Iranian reformist camp because of his involvement in mass executions of political prisoners in 1988, Zimmt said. President Rouhani himself hinted at Raisi’s past, the Iranian expert stated, when he stated in one of his election speeches that Iranian citizens no longer want anyone who has spent 38 years in prison and execution. To counter this, Zimmt said that Raisi has issued a number of statements to improve the status of women in the country. Khamenei, Raisi has been a public skeptic of the 2015 nuclear deal and is strongly allied with the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Corps.
OTHER NAMES that have been taken up with Raisi and Mojtaba include Rouhani and Raisi’s predecessors who run the judiciary, Sadeq Larijani. Although a regular member of the establishment, Rouhani is seen as more open to the West than Khamenei or Raisi and more likely to try to remove crises and confrontations rather than exacerbate them, but Rouhani has lost face in the last two years since the Trump administration. withdrew from the nuclear agreement. He would have a better chance if Khamenei recovers and Rouhani succeeds in a new deal with the upcoming Biden administration. Zimmt wrote in 2019 that a member of the Assembly of Experts, senior pastor Mohsen Araki, confirmed in an interview with Father’s News Agency that a three-member committee has a secret list of a number of potential candidates to succeed Khamenei should the need suddenly arise to replace the aging leader after his 30-year rule. This list could also include candidates for dark horses from the ayatollahs or from the IRGC. So part of the question would be whether Iran continues to be ruled mainly by priests, or if the IRGC security apparatus makes a kind of coup and moves the country to a real police state. Of course, Khamenei can nibble on all the rumors in the coming days or weeks, but at the age of 81, speculation will continue.

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