▲ Does mainland Wushu Wuyu rule Taiwan? But for one reason, the chance that the two sides of the strait will shoot in the near future is low.
The struggle between China and the United States has heated up, geopolitical tensions have escalated and the Taiwan Strait has become unstable. The United States and Taiwan have been accused of touching the mainland’s red line. In the past year, PLA military flights have flown 49 fighter jets over the center line of the Strait that Taiwan advocates and the mainland does not recognize and has set records since 1990. All parties are concerned about the risk of gun fire accidents across the strait will increase, and to rule Taiwan by force.
According to expert analysis, Taiwan’s relatively intermediate media “ETtoday News Cloud” has summarized five possible military operations by the People’s Liberation Army against Taiwan. However, it is worth noting that the mainland seems to remain calm and the possibility of military conflicts across the strait is still relatively low. Some Chinese think tanks have pointed out that the use of force against Taiwan could be detrimental to the road to recovery.[Situationen i Taiwansundet]US security adviser warns mainland not to seek military reunification to promote Taiwan to become a “porcupine”
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The five parts listed in the “ETtoday News Cloud” are as follows.
Intense exercises paralyze the United States and Taiwan
In recent months, the PLA has conducted intensive military exercises in the “Four Great Seas” in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Hu Ruizhou, deputy director of Taiwan’s security research center and former major general of the Eighth Army Corps, pointed out that the mainland could paralyze the United States and Taiwan through lengthy regular military exercises. Then choosing the right time, the People’s Liberation Army took action that captured Taiwan and even the United States out of guard.
2. Hunting cruises consume the fighting force of the Taiwanese military
In less than half of October, the PLA’s military aircraft touched the identity zone of the air defense claimed by Taiwan and which has not been recognized by the mainland six times. The Taiwanese military sent 2,972 types of fighter jets for surveillance or interception. The cost was about $ 25.5 billion, equivalent to about $ 6.9 billion.
Zhang Jing, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of Strategic Studies in Taiwan, believes that during the flight of military aircraft such as PLA reconnaissance aircraft, no fighter jets escorted or sent fighter cruises. He believes that the mainland obviously does not want the tension to get out of control.
The analysis pointed out that the PLA military aircraft touched Taiwan’s air defenses and only wanted to consume Taiwan’s military power. Jie Zhong, a researcher from the China Association for Strategic Foresight and a director of the China Zheng He Society, pointed out that the reason the People’s Liberation Army will take a big step is probably deliberate planning, hoping to get into the southwest corner many times through normalized exercises to put pressure on the Taiwanese military. , Perform a stress test.
Jie Zhong said the People’s Liberation Army is likely to copy past practice, just as former President Lee Teng-hui’s “two-state theory” in 1999 was used to destroy the silent understanding established in 1958 that “The People’s Liberation Army can not go to sea and Taiwan’s military aircraft can not can enter the mainland. “
3. Paramilitary methods captured Taiwan’s outer islands
Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute’s January “National Defense Situation Monthly Report” discussed Penghu’s strategic position in defense operations across the Taiwan Strait. The article mentioned that with the rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army, the political and psychological value of Kinmen and Matsu’s defense operations in the Taiwan Strait gradually exceeded the value of military strategy. In addition, due to geostrategic constraints, when war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, Kinmen and Matsu had to conduct independent defense operations. , To contain the mainland army during the war.[Taiwansundet]think tank mainland says military deterrence has worked: Taiwanese are more afraid of military reunification (photos) [Situationen i Taiwansundet]CCTV: When the military reunification of Taiwan triggers “the first battle is over”
Former Deputy Chief of Air Force Zhang Yanting pointed out that military conflicts can be divided into low-level, medium-level and high-level conflicts. From a cross-border perspective, it is likely that low-level conflicts will occur, and the site will be on the outer islands. He believes that three islands, Dongsha Island, Nansha Taiping Island and Wuqiu between Matsu and Kinmen, are the most likely for military conflicts on the outer islands. The islands are easy to attack and difficult to defend. The PLA will adopt a “three-dimensional” landing “meaning vertical landing and three-perish operations. “
4. Full-scale “war”
“ETtoday News Cloud” said that if the occupation of the outer islands is not enough to bring Taiwan to its knees, it is likely that an entire war in the Taiwan Strait will break out. As a Taiwanese military expert, Hu Ruizhou pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army can resort to the trick of “borrowing arrows from a straw boat”. Through a large number of aircraft and maritime drone ships, the Taiwanese military may be forced to launch air weapons like the Patriots, “and play the scenes in the romance of the three kingdoms. In the 2000s, our weapons were tricked into the air across the Taiwan Strait.”
The PLA also carried out reconnaissance, attacked and destroyed radar, mobile missile launchers and main combat equipment and combat troops, as well as destroyed remaining or recovery facilities.
However, Taiwan’s military security expert Su Ziyun said that if a war is to be won, the offensive and defensive ratio must have a 3: 1 chance of winning. On a certain level, I am fully prepared for defense. “
The US Department of Defense recently announced China’s military power report 2020, pointing to the imbalance in Taiwan’s naval power and the continued widening of the gap. Forbes held the opposite view, saying that the Pentagon’s report ignored Taiwan’s missiles and underestimated Taiwan’s combat efficiency.[Brottning mellan Kina och USA]The US senator proposes “Taiwan Defense Law” draft to block military reunification on the mainland [Situationen i Taiwansundet]Beidou mainland helps “chop off” Taiwan? Taiwanese military said it used this trick to dismantle
The article pointed out that the Taiwan Strait is turbulent, there are many external fortresses between Taiwan and the mainland, and Taiwan’s main island also has few beaches suitable for landing. The geographical features give Taiwan a similar advantage.
5. Both soft and hard hands, to bring the hearts of the people of Taiwan with benefits
If the People’s Liberation Army completely attacked Taiwan, it would definitely face persuading the people of Taiwan not to resist. Taiwan’s military expert Hu Ruizhou pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army can use “soft and hard hands” to use public opinion, legal and psychological warfare to consolidate and expand its results. For example, use internal media to broadcast propaganda in Taiwan, including the military commission’s “Send to Taiwanese compatriots.” For the military and Taiwanese elements of independence, the rest of life is business as usual.
Hu Ruizhou also believes that the mainland will also launch “Taiwan Renminbi-equivalent passports”, so that human resources will be doubled four or five times to win people’s hearts.[Kina-USA-brottning]Fu Gaoyi: If conflicts between China and the United States in Taiwan can turn into a world war [Brottning mellan Kina och USA]Mysterious nuclear weapons that the United States does not know Xi? Trump broke the news that experts want to break his head
Regarding the timing of the mainland’s use of troops against Taiwan, Lin Yufang, the convener of the National Security Group at the National Policy Research Foundation for the Kuomintang think tank, suggested seven possibilities, namely:
Taiwan declares independence
Taiwan is clearly against independence
Oro in Taiwan
Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons
Cross-border peaceful reunification dialogue delayed
Foreign forces intervene in Taiwan issues
Foreign troops stationed in Taiwan
However, Lin Yufang believes that the possibility of a war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the short term is not great. The main reason is that the mainland is busy reviving the mainland economy after the epidemic and dealing with the still thorny Hong Kong issue and the Sino-Indian border disputes. The strong actions in economics and trade and the South China Sea are not a good time to attack Taiwan by force.[Kina-USA-brottning]US Secretary of Defense reveals 25-year shipbuilding plan increases the number of ships by 70% to control China [Kina-USA brottning]Kissinger warns that US and China must set conflict boundaries to avoid repeating World War I mistakes [Brottning mellan Kina och USA]If the mainland uses force against Taiwan, Pompeo says the United States will do the same [Kina och USA: s vetenskaps- och teknologikrig]US exports of graphite, a raw material for missiles to China, are causing controversy in Congress
Editor-in-Chief: Deng Guoqiang
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