Row prices have fallen dramatically over the past month. so much that today the price of Brent has lost 18.5% of its value, while the WTI fell 21.23% over the same period and reached a 10-day loss that had not seen since 1984.
These cases are mainly due to higher production data and after learning that Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia produced more than 33 million barrels a day in October for the first time. which shows that the three can deliver almost one third of global consumption, which is close to 100 million bpd.
Under this environment, one of the most affected local Ecopetrol, which loses the opportunity to sell its oil pump more expensive abroad.
Given that the company produces 724,000 barrels of crude oil per day, with today's exchange rate, it would lose 27.520 million dollars a day compared with the data in early October.
This calculation is given by the fact that the barrel produced by the oil company is multiplied at a price since a month ago (US $ 86) and with TRM from that time, which was $ 3,005.50. Thus, Ecopetrol went to a fuel of $ 258,503. On the contrary, with TRM closing this week ($ 3,145) and a US $ 70,1 barrel $ 220,491, which would end in the month of $ 825,620 million, only with the prices descolgada.
"Oil mortality in the month is quite important not just for the country's finances, which is affected by Ecopetrol's dividend income, but in other cases, because Brent was over 80 USD currency and the local market had a pillow that supported them as the best artists among Latin Americans" says Diego Velásquez, economics analyst at Casa de Bolsa.
Should the crude oil fall?
"The supply and demand tension could slow down oil prices for next year," says Mario Acosta, Strategic Chief at Ultraserfinco.
Exactly in supply data, it is added that, according to the Energy Information Administration, AIE, the US raw production will reach 12.06 billion bpd in 2019, which exceeds 12 million bpd before budgeting.
On the demand side there are also risks that add; On Friday, Chinese economic data showed that producer inflation fell in the fourth month of October, a sign of low economic growth that contributes to the market's expectations of a severe and slow global growth in 2019.
Currently no fracking
According to the third section of the Court, the state suspended temporary standards for fracking in the country.
According to the section "May the Columbia Hydraulic Permissions Technology Possible Potential Damage or Risk to the Environment and Human Health, whose severity and irreversibility are based on possible deficiencies in the actions taken."
According to Ramiro Pazos Guerrero, Judge in the Third Section and Deputy Managing Director of the Corporation, the decision was taken because "the company considered that it was relevant conclusions from the Comptroller Office's warning control in 2012, pointing out that the increase in seismicity, water pollution and health impacts caused by Fracking was potentially risky, all the more so if technology developed in areas of protected areas and strategic ecosystems, such as Páramos. Similarly, he warned that the Colombian context posed special requirements that should be analyzed with great care.
Before this decision, Daniela García, environmental engineer and lawyer for the Alliance Colombia Libre de Fracking said that it is important because "it will be a precedent when applying the precautionary principle to the potential risks and the consequences that can be derived from the application of this technology."