Think of the Cass Freight Index Report for March 2019.
The Cass Freight Index was one of the first freight flow indicators to be positive (in October 2016) and confirmed our prediction of a recovery in the US economy. In addition to our concern that Cass Freight Shipments Index has been negative on a YoY foundation for the fourth consecutive month. The bottom line will indicate the data in the coming weeks whether it is just a break in the degree of economic expansion or at the beginning of an economic contraction.
- We are concerned about the sharp downturns in international air freight volumes (especially in Asia) and the recent sulfur in rail volumes in auto and building materials
- We are secured by the gradual increase in Cass Freight Shipments Index (up 2.0%) and volumes in US domestic trucks (especially in truckload dry van)
- We look closely at the volumes of chemicals and other transports by rail, as they have lost momentum in recent weeks and can provide us with the first evidence of the global slowdown of distribution to the United States
Transfers to GDP
U-turn in Trucking
J.B. Hunt, the largest American truck company had this to say: "Volume or lack of it is obviously the main feature. "The equipment hurts wounds, and the driver's shortage ends. "
Wolf Richter gives excellent comment.
Orders, Miles Sink
Reuters reports Truck Drivers View Orders, Miles Case in recent US slowdown signal.
"There is no doubt that we have seen a deceleration in volumes," says Bob Costello, CFO of American Trucking Associations (ATA). "This is an indication that the economy is declining."
The global economy is on life support. We have simultaneous slowdowns in the US, China and the EU.
Trump's tax cuts were one year too early to help his choices, but he could win anyway.
A trade with China will not affect this image.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock