As the assets of the monetary authority reached their historic high of $ 77,481 million on April 9 – the date of the fourth disbursement of the IMF $ 10,835 million in the standby loan. They did not stop falling during the following days, until they touched the level of $ 66,994 million this Friday, May 17 (preliminary data).
I mean BCRA's gross reserves already accumulated 25 consecutive cases, during which period they recorded a decrease of $ 10,487 million (-13.5%) or an average daily decrease of $ 420 million. It is worth remembering that on April 22, the biggest daily bets during that period were due to the payment of Bonar 2024 depreciation and interest for $ 3,861 million. To this must be added the daily $ 60 million bleeding that Guido Sandleris is led by the Treasury every day.
For now, "The ability to intervene by BCRA, which even works only from expectations and futures, would allow a certain exchange rate of calm. What starts to worry is the continued decline of international reserves", experts from Delphos Investment warned this week.
For its part, the financial analyst Christian Buteler attributed to the decline in the central funds to the exit from investors from Argentina. "If you have a LETES maturity of $ 1,400 million, and you only renew US $ 1,000 million, the $ 400 million difference in the country is not reinvested, and it goes away. There is one reason why the reserves fall" .
He added that "there is also a price difference, for example with swaps and with the $ 60 million one day sold by BCRA because of the Treasury, but the thick case is not there".
Esteban Domecq, director of Invecq, explained it "The reduction in reserves is mainly due to the payment of central government debt, capital and interest for approximately USD 6.7 billion. Secondly, to the daily sales of accounts and orders of the Treasury, and to a lesser extent to the valuation of the assets of which reserves are invested ".
However, in the market, some are concerned about this case in reserves as it does without the BCRA intervening in the foreign exchange market, using dollars from their bags and while maintaining the fixed private conditions practically. I mean two variables that can further accelerate the decline in reserves.
"In 30 days, we spent all the payments made by the IMF last month, equivalent to 14% of the reserves. Really the dynamic worries. We knew there were debt promises, but here are more dollars than the obligations", stressed out stores.
However, Domecq does not, in contrast to Buteler, currently see such a worrying situation. "It must be understood, however, that a large portion of the dollars that came from the fund are simply paying the outcome of the government debt, as access to finance was lost."
At the moment, the adjustment of the real exchange rate changes the external imbalance (trade balance, tourism balance, etc.), with which the pressure on the exchange rate is lower. In addition, you do not see bankroll departures, which is very important, because of the $ 30,000 deposited, you are $ 16,000 embedded in BCRA, "Invecq's director asserted.