The central court in the investigation war concentrates on national studies, those who are looking to highlight the struggle of the presidency. But stuck to that main scenario, there is an equally hot fight: the bid on Buenos Aires governorship. María Eugenia Vidal Axel Kicillof. now bugle agreed on two new forecasts that seem to configure another crack. The statistical crack.
On Tuesday, this paper appeared an important fact that came from Kirchnerism itself, and it was confirmed in La Plata by macrismo. During the last month, the president had approached 4 points when the entire vote was measured, including candidates for president. Thus, tandem Fernández-Kicillof was no longer 10 points away from Macri-Vidal, but about 6.
The new studies they do not measure the pairs together. But when they do it separately, striking differences occur.
The one who gives Vidal good
One of the surveys has been commissioned by one of the most important investment banks, BTG Pactual. Of Brazilian origin, with an Argentine subsidiary, he hires known consultants in the country (like Isonomía, the one who does the most job for the national government), to do what is called "field work". The survey itself. But then he publishes the numbers in his name. In some cases, you can combine "field work" from different companies.
A few days ago, BTG released a 25-page report, containing data from the province of Buenos Aires, from now on 800 cases (450 in the GBA and 350 in the province's interior). The survey was conducted between 6 and 25 June. There were personal and telephone interviews (with operator). The general margin of error is +/- 2.45%.
The survey begins with a comparison of images. There, the governor has 53% positive (22% very good and 31% good), against 43% of former finance minister (16% very good and 27% good). Both, oddly, present the same negative: 44%.
Then he shudders with the intention of voting. And it measures, always for the province of Buenos Aires, the two sections separately: formula for president and formula for governor. There, the binomial of Together for Change (Vidal-Daniel Salvador), with 48.1% gets you almost 12 points to duode Frente de Todos (Kicillof-Verónica Magario), which reaches 36.4%.
For President and Vice, on the other hand, Fernández is up, by 39.4%, against 33.1% of Mauricio Macri-Miguel Pichetto. That is, Vidal gets 15% more than Macri and Kicillof, 3% less than Alberto and Cristina. Part of the governor's growth in this measurement undoubtedly comes from the combination of the Federal Consensus: while Roberto Lavagna reaches 11.5%, his candidate for governor hardly adds up to 2.5%.
In any case, it is a laboratory test that has historically not materialized in the dark room. The average vote reduction in the province is only 3 points. Vidal achieved something historic in 2015: He took 6.62% more than Macri in general, and then he beat Anibal Fernandez, who had two points less than Daniel Scioli.
Who gives Kicillof good
The second he worked for bugle it is from Query and M & R Associates, the consultant whose face is visible to Gustavo Marangoni, former head of the Banco Provincia under the leadership of Daniel Scioli. As the previous official told this newspaper, the survey was "not ordered by any room or candidate, we did it for ourselves".
The survey is off 1 241 cases, Solved between June 28 and July 2 via telephone (IVR system with automatic recording) and online. It is presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.84%.
In the section for governor, Vidal remains over Kicillof but with only one and a half: 41.5% to 41%. It is also a very polarized scenario, with other candidates for the governor of less than three points each.
In the compulsory president, K also appears ahead, with 8.3 points of difference: 45.3% versus 37% of Macri-Pichetto. In this part, it is somewhat similar to the BTG study. But for other presidential candidates, there are also differences. Especially with Lavagna-Urtubey: While the investment bank scores 11.5 points, Query-M & R is nearly down to the margin of error by 3.2%.
This study contains another important issue: how willing is the Buenos Aires voter to cut the vote? 78% say they will not but 6% answer yes and 10%, which "still does not know but could". There are 16 points of potential "cutters". Vidal looks at them with enthusiasm.