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¿Tien resto el Banco Central hasta octubre?



Después de las PASO, the Central Quedó with the positioned vendor. Teny margins are turning over $ s6,600 millones, and as a result, $ s3,600 millones

The PASO despairs of the PASO do not necessarily apply to Banco Central and intervene with the reserve until the September of this year, in addition to the consumption of the colchón, with the communication of the intervener and the futures of accumulating and avoiding it.

Así, and 45 días, the amount of the monetary organism that is due to the Fondo Monetario Internacional le había permitido utilizes almost September as well as the balance of circa $ 3,600 million.

A rigor, this June, with the cambio estable, the monetary organism proves to be contrary to the futures, the inversion of the operation of the bus to a pioneer in techa a la divisa. The mode, as evidaba as possible, can be compared to theirs, but must be imported, added powder for extra momentum of the volatilidad, or actual, or for the purpose of the October elections.

With its operations, the BCRA segment provides information available in June, and is now a ten-year position in the US $ 300 million. This montage, teniendo and cuenta que el FMI permits a September membership with a position of up to $ s3,600 millones, or Powers of Central's habia agrandado of $ 6,600 million.

Quemando el acopio

"The position of futuros comprised of habra logrado in BCRA durante el period de established, lamentablemente la tuvo which is cerrando y ahora entra en terreno negativo", Norberto Sosa, director of Invertir and Bolsa, advised, and a base of projects and cellos on the elaborate dates of the mercado.

As of July, momentum of turbulence and mercado prevalence at Las PASO, the Banco Central habido pedagogy of u $ s1,000 million to $ s3,600 million suits the limit of ventas and futures, algo a lo the Fondo cedió y luego confirm and staff report on the IV Revision of Acuerdo Stand By.

"Continued with a magnitude of sophistication for intervening and futures", the BCRA president, Guido Sandleris, on July 16, in the case of the multilateral organ of credit in Spain, per his imagination of the president as soon as possible hubo después del resultado de las PASO.

El Fondo, by way of part, advertises an eventual remuneration of the student's demand. "The principal is very important to the cambio and the preferences of the corporation with respect to the activists of Argentina and the result of their incertidum in the panorama of the future," mencionó el staff report.

With operations in the mercado and futures, as prevalent in PASO or Banco Central, the amortiguar of the various divisions is necesized by the man in the reserve. así, Segun Closculos de la City, on the 16th of July and the 1st of August, with a promotion of the menus of $ 200 million for this, quota and total with a position of $ 1,500 million, and with the addition of the powder fuego total au $ s5,100 millones.

Per en la semana prevalent es elecciones, con la fuerza en los dias siguientes, la mesa del Central utizó los otros u $ s1,500 millones del colchón que había accumulado y se quedó solos con $ u3,600 millones para vender .

Unless the venturer intervenes in futures, he or she is in direct management and the exact spot (spot), per his reserve reserve.

"It is ideal for a lot of powder in the horse's horse's ability to learn," explains Javier Marcus, professor of derivatives of the Universidad Nacional de Rosario. "No para hacerlo in largo plazo, pera para calmar y contrarrestar la volatilidad transitoria", agrega.

Aguas más calmas

And when it comes to horas, the mercado parcels have a precedent for the equilibrium of the dollar, which is the Central no so far as many menus of $ 250 million are allowed in the Fondo, even though they are not the only interview and spot.

"Now we are looking at future operations and futures. Cuando interviewed about 5,000 contracts, which is $ 5 million and we are operating type", commented Leonardo Svirsky, a cargo manager of Bull Market Brokers operations.. The operator is called a BCRA "lo está deiando correr", albeit they have a las implas de los contratos, muy por encima del nivel and which is established against the elecciones. "It is very probable for guards to despue", acota.

By adding a tendency to market or market a techie, the BCRA is powering our different strategies and futures markets, the "no" quarantine mode of obtaining balances that allow for the FMI.

As a como, the reservations are directed directly from the diners and may be due to the hassle and travels of the suburbs, as well as the individual and the post office who are the tenants to have an immediate effect as far as possible.

"La mesa del BCRA has cacmo hacer ofertas efectivas. For example, we have this ponier posturas of $ 20 million and up to now. It's a form of marca la cancha," said Marcus, who is not the arranger of Rofex.

The semantic proximity to a new mission of FMI and City is particularly important with the Central Pediatrician on the amplification of the powder, all menus and futures, but no specific reservations.

"This way, it is much more difficult for tenants to do. Admás is that the parties to the guarantee and have the finesse, cuando vence el contrato, puede ir forzando a la cotización para no quedar tan vendido", explica el jefe de la at the local diner.

"However, it is a situation of volatility and mercado in the precio bus. No peleando versus a tendency", agrega.

"Ahora showed the mission of the Fondo and Hay far beyond the permissive hacker," said Svrinsky, the Bull Market Brokers.

Las balas que quedan hasta octubre

"Quite new seminars have been selected for October, and they are a part of the demand for education, even more than a victorious cantar victory." Haciendo is an extrapolation of montos and dias, if it is BCRA sigue con rese, which is just a matter of reading ", advised Sosa, the Invertir and Bolsa.

Marcus, by way of part, is the central point that proves the only moment of relative calm and mercado for recomposer of position, and you are full of quadar del lado comprador. Admás, create the BCRA powder cushion aprovechar y comprar and a mercado spot and facing futuros. "Así puede tener más reservas", explica.

They won over the Volatilidad and Tanto Sandleris with the flamboyant ministry of Hacienda, Hernán Lacunza, dejaron and claro que harán todo lo que sea necesario para contener al dolar.

However, there is a new disparity in the quotation tendency to have a negative impact on the economy, per month or on the other side of the chances that the Gobierno will be the result of the PASO.

El Fondo también juega su partido. The mission is, as it were, the semantics of secular analysis of the ministry of memory, which is already central to the divisor of the divisor, the necesario, of a recalibration of communications.

As a tener and cuenta, you can do it all the way, with ventas and spot y futuros, Sandleris tended to be a baja la manga: reduce the demand for dollars to the normative cambio. Lo demostro la semana pasada, cuando apeló and esa carta para limitar al maxima la tenencia de divisas de los bancos, jugadores de peso a la hora de alimentar la demanda de billetes verdes.

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