A new scenario of fragmentation and partisan involvement of social organizations arises in public space and ignores warnings in the government. After almost three years of negotiations, agreements, concessions and mutual benefits, reality begins to change radically. At the beginning of the election year and the economy at the climax of the crisis, objective prerequisites are offered to risk the peace of unstable equilibrium where officials and social leaders have coexisted.
Increasing tensions, unfulfilled agreements, cuts of streets without warning, radicalization of discourse, intra-sectoral competition for more benefits for each organization (or any new faction), escalation of requirements. These are facts and signs that the government began to register with concern a few months ago. In recent weeks an upward curve was noted and the hostile proposals were reflected by violence last Wednesday. That day astonished a demonstration that completely interrupted the traffic on 9 de Julio Avenue the usual conversations of social movements. Within the organizations it is acknowledged that the measure was adopted with some difficulty and without sufficient internal discussion. The moderate endings are dragged by the most combatants. Disturbing to a context of fragility surplus.
Everything indicates that nobody wants to lose the poster in this growing dispute to reposition itself in the opposition space while gaining benefits for the state. The latter will not be so easy: Social leaders' party ruling removes space for the most dialogue and sympathetic civil servants in social issues.
It can be said that Juan Grabois, the leader of the Movement of the Popular Economy (CTEP) and close relations with the pope, illustrated the beginning of the new stage the day he escorted Cristina Kirchner to the courts, quoted in the cause of corruption's notebooks.
Strictly speaking, the starting point must be located at 9 de Julio Avenue on 21 February when the Moyanoclan surrounded the Grabois and other social references, such as Daniel Menéndez, from Barrios de Pie; The then triumphant Cegetista Juan Carlos Schmid; the leaders of the two CTAs Hugo Yasky and Pablo Micheli, and a large delegation of Kirchner representatives who led Máximo Kirchner at the footsteps of the scene.
It was the beginning of a dynamic approach and confluence within sectors and actors, which hitherto hid (and some stressed) differences in origin, military, ethical behavior, political projects and powerbuilding. Even with many deviations, many of those who were suspected began to begin since the beginning of the Kirchner government began to converge in their growing confrontation with the government and at the head of a possible candidacy from Cristina. The reasons are several, but the illusion of regaining power before the fall of government's popularity due to the economic crisis is a powerful engine for all of them. Not only for Kirchnerists, who lost control of the state and Buenos Aires, or Moyano, jaqueados for justice. It is also for leaders of social organizations, despite the almost privileged treatment they have had, especially from the Ministry of Social Affairs, who heads Carolina Stanley. In its lead lies a key to its problems. Stanley has been to the social leaders as a reliable messenger, but also a skilled chief who took away the power and broke the customer network of some of them with the management of the resources that the state allocates to the most vulnerable sectors. There are included social plans, but also other contributions, such as funds for maintaining canteens, snack bars and various companies in the immediate areas. In this universe not only do the large groups of the most famous leaders, but also the Catholic and Evangelical churches and smaller organizations, with which the national government and also María Eugenia Vidal have worked more and more carefully. Questions about power and representation in conflict.
If the policy of reducing the distribution of aid is deepened, the capital of the social leaders suffers. Although the economic situation is not improving and the ability to enter into formal activities for the vast majority of the excluded, which is its support base, continues to move away. Its power lies in the ability to handle help and in mobilization capacity to claim. The first is in control. The last, for now, remains. For her, they bet the leaders and are there several who offer him the politics of these days. In the government, they suggest that Moyano has provided resources to retain the ability to occupy the streets.
The economic crisis and its political impact have paradoxical effects that also help explain the construction of the new scenario. The government weakened, but it did not lose its hard core of support, while a new actor has yet to dispute his representation. Neither showed any space under conditions to move from the main opposition to Kirchner.
Polarization continues to order policy. Considering that the government party is competitive in the presidential elections in 2019 and Macri re-elected, followed the approaches that Grabois initiated with Cristina followed by other social leaders, including several who had moved with a crash from Kirchnerism. This is the case with Evita Movement, led by Fernando "Chino" Navarro and Emilio Persico, who recently met and got another of the pardons that the ex-president likes to offer to those returning to his week.
A little more distant, but in the process of approaches and possible confluence, Barrios de Pie is with Daniel Menéndez on the front. Menéndez and Victoria Donda took the first step from Libres del Sur to move on to dialogue with Kirchner, although they retain some differences and question Grabois for having "thrown his head" with Cristina. The departments only complement the one who manages the power and draws the negotiation capacity from those who want to join without losing identity and relevance. Grabois, however, tends to baffle everyone, as he recently did. After his fervent defense by the former president, Kirchner criticized corruption and condemned many of its leaders. Like Lilita Carrió on the opposite side.
Internal differences, the search for the appearance of each of the leaders and sectors, seen on July 9 last week, have an impact on daily life and political reality.
The government monitors the social situation on a daily basis, aims to strengthen aid as soon as it takes into consideration complex situations and prepares for half a and a half months.
The last week of November, with the G-20 Heads of State and Government, can offer everyone's eyes a taste of December waiting for us in the streets. The government is dreaming that this summit will provide external benefits, with an internal impact on repositioning itself. Kirchnerism will be a part of those protesting against the ruling party's international adaptations and again demonstrating against the great powers. It's not just ideology. Nothing that can improve Macris situation and remove the possibility of his management collapse will be well received. Each time he feels more comfortable among those who are radicalized.
The moderate on both sides has a big challenge and a great opportunity to avoid introducing extreme positions. It will not be easy. The guards of orders at any price and the accidents regardless of the costs are coming, not just in Argentina.