Monday , December 6 2021

Macrias surprise resurrection at the end of a terrible year



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Is it possible for a president to be re-elected after a year when inflation was the highest of the decade, did poverty increase exponentially and real wages lost at least 10%? The answer proposed by international experience is negative: there is almost no example where a government can win the choice of such catastrophic financial results. But these days the interviewers are surprised because once more, Mauricio Macri threatens to defy the weight loss.

The first indication came to the government on Monday after the G20 Convention. That day made Jaime Durán Barba He spread a small survey among various cabinet members – daily, that's the technical name – which reflected a sensitive growth – close to 10 points – of the government's positive image. When such a sudden movement occurs, it usually happens that it disappears like the triggering process. However, subsequent investigations, during the following two weeks, confirmed the trend.

During the last fifteen days, several investigators registered this trend. Company Synopsis, one of those who exactly predicted the outcome of 2017, measures every third month the possible result of a vote between Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner. In March of the year before the outbreak of the crisis, the difference in favor of Macri seemed irreversible: 49.4 to 33.5. In June, after the first mega devaluation, it was reduced: 44.6 to 37.4. In September, the result was even even: 45.8 to 42.2. The last measurement shows a change in trend with regard to the rest of the year as the gap in favor of Macri was extended again: 49.4 to 44.1. The forecast was that Macri would have 5.9 points of difference to benefit: he would get 52.9 to 47.1. For its part, it University of San Andrés distributed his two-tone study on December 8th. There you can also experience a fairly consolidated difference between Macri and Cristina. Between secure voting and possible voting, Macri would achieve 41% of the votes and only Cristina 28. Those who would never vote for Macri put up this study up to 49%. It is a very high figure, but much lower than 64%, which rejects the former president in that way. The numbers would be a looser if Maria Eugenia Vidal was to be displayed, something that worries Cristina's strategists: someone who says Vidal votes, will finally vote against Macri Cristina. "Although it is obvious that the reduction of electoral support that the government suffers from June to July, due to the economic and political crisis, approval indicators, future expectations and image seems to hold back the downward trend that the government suffered".

The largest polls – Poliarquía and Aurelio – close large surveys these days. But in both cases, the preliminary figures confirm the perception that recent weeks have grown in the presidency and leadership picture for the first time since March. For example, Aurelio has conducted measurement for several months, where he faces Macri and Cristina. He usually yields a lot even but always in favor of Macri: 3 points in normal months, 4 in the good for oficialismo, 1 in the bad. However, in November, Cristina appeared for the first time above. In the next few days, it will be seen that the curves have been reversed again. Some measurements reach a growth of government image of 6 percentage points.

If comparing year after year, support to the government is very important. But this is the first time since the dollar began to rise, that the curve is reversed. And whatever it was, that in all surveys Macri also appears as a competitor candidate seems a miracle, something difficult to understand.

By train to seek explanations, those responsible for these studies are at risk of the slowdown in inflation, the stability of the dollar, the successful organization of the G20 and the majority's harmony with the ideas contained in the security protocol have played an important role in returning. In some sense, it is meaningful that the people of a country feel better about a government that controls certain variables than those who do not exist or are exposed to the fierce forces of destiny. Therefore, in the coming months, it will be a key for the government to control the key variable, which is the price of the dollar.

In that sense there is a question that remains unanswered, an obvious sword of Damocles. In each election it was a monstrous capital flight. The central bank is forbidden to intervene until the exchange rate reaches 48. What will happen when one of the major players in the market will buy, from a serving, a significant amount of dollars? If the central bank can not sell, the jump will be large and vertiginous. Some serious analysts claim that it will be impossible for the cover on Pandora's box to not jump through the air. In that case, the dollar will fly again and the numbers will fall, and much closer to the election. Will there be an antidote to it? The continued increase in land risk is a major warning in that regard.

The great paradox of these studies is that they occur at a time when social opinion about what is happening in the country is overwhelmingly negative. The survey at the University of San Andrés considers 65% that the country is worse than last year against 14%, who otherwise think 38% think it will be even worse next year, compared with only 28 who believe it will improve, 62 % of government leadership against the 35 who support it, 76% are completely or somewhat dissatisfied, against 21 people who feel satisfied. These figures are very consistent with inflation, poverty, unemployment, GDP, indebtedness, consumption. During these three years all that went up went down, and what would have gone down went up.

The election next year will have a consistent result and open until the last moment. This was the case in 2015 and 2017, when Cambiemos won with very little, with the help of Cristina Fernandez's serious mistakes in the nomination of candidates and in the decision to leave the judiciary. Macri is a much weaker person than in the election. There is no reason to believe that the match is defined.

The fact that Cristina after this year does not appear to lead the race is another example of the consistent rejection she receives in a large part of society. That, after all, is known about Cristina, Macri is not clear, it is a clear sign of the rejection caused by her administration. There will be a struggle between two leaders who very opposed and weakened the misunderstanding that led.

One brought inflation to 24 and the other to 48. One kept poverty around 30 after a decade where the country received a strong injection of money. The other one increased even more. In both areas there are better candidates than Mauricio and Cristina. María Eugenia Vidal she is much more loved than her boss. Axel Kicillof, in multiple polls, is shown with more chances to beat Macri. But Mauricio and Cristina are the bosses and they do not go off. Being selfish is what has locked the country in a maze.

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