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Financial week: the peso opposed the emerging devaluation, but the land risk index rose again



With echoes of a new section of "commercial war " between the US and China is still present in the stock markets, Argentine assets showed a healthy behavior in the last week, if we take that into account in the world red numbers and generalized losses.

Probably it dollars and US government bonds have been the standings firm, given its nature as a refugee resort before geopolitical inclemencies. On average, Wall Street shares fell 0.7% a week.

the Growing currencies suffered. In Brazil, the dollar rose 3.8% a week, from 3.95 to 4.10 reais, close to the post last September. In China, 1.3% advanced, from 6.82 to 6.91 yuan. As for the Turkish lira, it rose 0.8 percent.

In this frame 20 cents increase or 0.4% perceived by the dollar in Argentina it can be weighed as a success from the central bank's perspective. The currency was closed at $ 45 in the wholesale market and $ 46.10 in the public on average by banks.

The Central Bank did not have to make sales of cash. The dollars provided by the Treasury – at a rate of $ 60 million per day – and liquidations of exporters they delivered the demand. BCRA interventions in the futures market and high interest rates of the liquidity letter (Leliq) was supplemented to stabilize the stock market.

"In relation to interest rates, Leliq continues to drip and drop the average price cannot break 71% annual floor. In addition, the BCRA remains committed to the monetary base target in May, increasing the pressure on the likely declining path in the benchmark rate, says a central bank's report. CEPA (Center for Political Economy in Argentina).

after 11 consecutive wheels in low-ended monetary policy this week 71,476% per year.

As for the measures, they subtracted 0.4% in pesos during the weekwhile the conductive panel S&P Merval by ByMA (exchanges and markets in Argentina) ended close 33,300 points.

In dollars, the decline for Argentinean shares on average 0.9% from last Friday, dynamic reflected in the ADR quote by Argentine companies in New York.

"We had fallen for others. The stock market, for the devaluation, much more. And off ridiculous prices measured in dollars, very close to the floor in line with historical falls, is starting to react, turning ", described Jorge Fedio, technical analyst of Clave Bursátil.

More visible was deterioration of government bonds: Some issues in dollars are still close to 18% a year. It is true that they followed the downward path of the emerging debt, but it is clear that These assets will be the last to recover the prices, when several layers left the minimum requirements at the end of April.

economist Gustavo Ber considered that the weakness of the Argentine fixed-interest term reads "itmixed reading who left the exchange of half of the double bonus for Lelink but with public participation, because most of them private investors decided to keep their holdings ".

US government bonds advanced against strong demand for coverage, as profitability declined from the annual 2,455% on Friday 10 to 2,394% per year. This movement also spread the gap with new titles and helps explain Increase by 5.3% in Argentine land risk to 946 points basic.

Lots of soy in Chicago Drilled $ 300 tone; and in Plaza de Rosario, measured in pesos, it resembled the discount of about 28% for reservations.

This decreased by almost 10% in 2019 for the value of the harvest Argentina affects the country's commercial and tax revenues. "With almost 57 million tonnes harvested, they are estimated losses of between $ 2,400 and $ 3,000 million for the group of producers, when exposed to a reduction in the market price of their production, "he said. Invecq Economic Consultant.


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